NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KBUF 231415

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1015 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Spectacular weather will be found across all of western and north
central New York this week...as a large area of high pressure will
slowly drift across the Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will climb
above normal in the process...with daytime highs in the 80s Friday
and Saturday. Our next chance for rain will be later this weekend
when there could be a few showers or thunderstorms.


Skies continue to clear across the region late this morning...as
Canadian high pressure drifts southeast from the Upper Great Lakes.
Strengthening subsidence and drier mid level air being diurnally
mixed to the surface will provide the clearing so that we can
anticipate plenty of bright sunshine for the afternoon. Speaking of
mixing...full mixing of the low levels with H85 temps in the vcnty
of 9c will support afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Some of the warmest valley locations could tickle the 80 degree

The large surface high will drift directly across our region
tonight. The associated dry airmass and light winds under clear
starlit skies will result in good radiational cooling so that it
will become rather cool. Mins tonight will range from around 50 near
the lake shores to the lower 40s across parts of the North Country
and in the cooler Srn Tier valleys. The only blemish on the
beautiful night will be some fog that will develop in the valleys.


High pressure will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday
before sliding off to the east by Friday. This will maintain fair
weather along with a warming trend. Higher humidity levels will
return by the weekend, as tropical moisture starts to work northward
into the region ahead of a weak cold front settling into the region
from the north. All this results in an end to our fair weather with
chances for showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday


Better agreement among Guidance packages with suppressing the
deeper subtropical moisture well south of the Lower Great Lakes.
Over the course of the Memorial day weekend look for
temperatures to nudge upwards (U70s-L80s)along with humidity
levels as deep southerly flow will transport some of the
available subtropical moisture to our south into our region. For
now, it looks like just increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Sunday as the northern upstream
shortwave trough over Quebec Canada influences the Lower Great
Lakes. Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will cross the region
as the shortwave passes by to our north through Ontario Canada
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier
weather with less humidity returns late Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds at the surface and aloft over New York


While there will still be some patches of IFR stratus across the
Southern Tier and in the KART area through 15z...Canadian high
pressure drifting southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will provide
the region with fine VFR weather for the midday and afternoon.

VFR conditions with clear skies will then persist through at least
tonight...although some fog may be found throughout the valleys of
the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region late (07-12z). This will likely
impact sites like KJHW and KELZ tonight with reduced vsbys.


Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely.


Winds will not be very strong, however there will be areas of
fog due to the warm moist air across the relatively cool lake
waters. Surface high pressure will near the region today, passing
over the Eastern Great Lakes Thursday, before shifting towards the
Southeast states on Friday. This will maintain light winds and
minimal waves through the end of the week.






NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion