NWS Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KBUF 231520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1120 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A moisture starved upper level disturbance will pass over our
region...but this should only result in some increased clouds and
possibly an isolated shower for the Southern Tier and North Country.
Otherwise strong high pressure over Ontario will extend southwards
to provide us with fair dry weather through the weekend.
Temperatures will remain below normal...but noticeably milder
weather can be expected for much of next week.


While fair weather will continue to dominate our region
today...a robust shortwave diving southeast from Lake Huron will
help to generate a little more cloud cover for the afternoon
with an isolated shower for the Southern Tier or Finger Lakes
region. The shortwave is nearly `invisible` in this mornings IR
imagery...but sticks out like a sore thumb in the
WV...especially in the mid and lower levels. Meanwhile...H85
temps in the vcnty of -10c will keep our mercury below normal.
Fully mixed under a strengthening mid March sun...this airmass
should only support max temps in the mid 30s for the lake plains
with chillier readings across the higher terrain.

Tonight...strong high pressure will nose south across our forecast
area. While slightly chillier air will settle across our region (H85
arnd -12c)...the airmass will still be relatively dry. This should
prevent anything more than some lake induced strato-cu for areas
south and east of Lake Ontario where an upslope flow will also come
into play. Mins tonight will be within a few degrees of those from
the past two nights...ranging from the mid 20s across the lake
plains to the teens in the Southern Tier.

An upper level trough will remain across the Northeast through the
weekend, with surface high pressure building into the region. A cool
northerly flow, along with some lingering low level moisture will
result in some clouds south of Lake Ontario Saturday and possibly
some flurries across the North country. This also will result in
well below normal temperatures for Saturday and Saturday night.
Highs will only be in the lower to mid 30s with lows Saturday night
ranging from the teens to lower 20s.

High pressure across southern Quebec will ridge into our region
Sunday and Sunday night. This will result in dry weather with quite
a bit of sunshine for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will
be a bit warmer, but will still remain below normal through the
end of the weekend.


Operational and ensemble model guidance is showing a nice 500mb
ridge building across the Eastern States early next week. This
ridge will run close to two standard deviations above normal for
this time of year and will help to bring above normal surface
temperatures. At the surface, the center of high pressure which
has been providing us with cool but dry weather for much of the
past week is forecast to shift south and center over New
England. This will direct warm southwesterly winds across
Western and Central NY Monday and Tuesday along with dry weather
through much of Tuesday.

After a cool start Monday morning with temps in the 20s near the
lakes and teens inland, we expect temps to warm into the 40s by
Monday afternoon and mid 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday as 850mb temps
rise above 0C. This should be welcomed warmth after more than two
weeks with below normal temperatures through much of March. By
Tuesday the southerly flow will become gusty ahead of a storm system
lifting across the Midwest states. Moisture ahead of this system
will bring back cloud cover through Tuesday with showers likely
holding off across western and central NY until Tuesday night where
chance POPs have been inserted.


Chances for mainly rain showers will be in place thorough the
second half of the week a frontal zone an one or more waves of
low pressure are forecast in medium range guidance to track
across western and central NY.

Temperatures through Thursday will remain above normal.
Wednesday and Thursday areas immediately east and northeast of
the Great Lakes will likely be cooler vs. inland areas owing to
wind coming over the cold lake waters.


Widespread VFR conditions will be in place across the region
today...although some leftover stratus through 16z will result in
patches of IFR to MVFR cigs across parts of the Southern Tier.

Tonight...VFR conditions will remain in place as strong high
pressure over Ontario will nose south across the Lower Great Lakes.
The only possible exception will be across the Southern Tier where
some patches of stratus could led to MVFR cigs after 08z.


Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.


Northwesterly winds will continue on the waters today and tonight.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory levels through






NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion